>> This year's midterms have made history as the most expensive U.S.

election cycle ever.

Several nearby states including Michigan, Iowa and Ohio are expecting tight Senate contest that could determine which party controls that chamber.

Democrats across the country are also hoping that they can win back control of the U.S.

house tonight.

While Illinois Democrats in statewide races are expected to continue their strong hold over state government.

Joining us to share what she'll be looking at tonight is Connie Mixon, a political science professor at Elmhurst University.

And of course, our Nic Blumberg and Matt Masterson will be back to join the discussion in just a moment as well.

County.

Welcome back.

Thanks for joining us.

Good to be here.

What are you gonna be watching for tonight?

Well, nationally, I think Republicans are on defense.

And so I think it's a matter of whether it's a good night for a Democrat or a great night for Democrats.

>> A good night would be Democrats taking the U.S.

House of Representatives, which I think can be expected.

A great night would be Democrats ending up in the 2 30's, not house and having a decent shot at the Senate early on.

I'm going to be looking at places like Maine and South Carolina.

I think Ohio is a big race.

There are a few congressional districts in Virginia in Kentucky that I think it'll be important for us to look at to kind of get an idea of how the Knights going.

And by the time we get to central time, Kansas and Iowa, you know, depending on what happens there could indicate a blue wave maybe just a good night for Democrats.

slightly purple fish So while President Trump is not on the ballot midterm election results are usually a good indicator of how the president is doing.

Also or something of an indicator.

And Trump has a 40% approval rating.

>> That's according to the most recent NBC News poll.

Any indication as to how his approval rating might factor into tonight's results?

I think factors in quite a bit.

Midterm elections are always a referendum on the president.

And typically when you have a term limited lane dog, president with low approval ratings, they tend to sort of fade into the background.

We have not seen that at all with President Trump.

In fact, he's saying boat like I'm on the ballot.

And I think that can cut both ways.

I think that it may drive some Republican turnout, but it also drives Democratic turnout.

also heard, you know, affordability, top of, you know, top of mind issue for many candidates as well as voters.

What do you think voters are going to be taking into the ballot booth with him today?

I think affordability cost of living.

Those are all issues.

I mean, I was actually surprised that Democrats actually stay fairly disciplined nationwide on affordability, cost of living.

I think states in the Midwest, Kansas State's of one thing with the median player that we be talking about a year ago like Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, even Texas they've been hard hit by the economy, particularly in the Midwest where diesel is over $6 a gallon that 70 per percent over what it was last year.

And voters tend to blame the incumbent when the economy is bad.

You say you believe that Democrats have been fairly disciplined on that issue saying more about that.

And how do you think Republicans have have been responding on that issue?

I mean, Democrats haven't always been disciplined.

Candidates attempted had different messages.

But nationally, they seem to all gotten the message.

Focus on affordability, focus low approval ratings and focus on being a check on Trump.

Those are sort of the themes you hear over and over again.

You hear a little bit of health care in there as well.

Republicans also are focused on affordability.

In fact, some of them are distancing themselves from President Trump, particularly when it comes to the war in Iran.

And that's that's driving up fuel prices for them.

So Republicans and Democrats are focused on affordability, but it's just a matter on who the voters believe when they go into the polling place.

You mentioned, you some of the Republicans trying to distance themselves.

I think some of the Illinois Republicans have been making attempts at that as well.

Democrats are expected to keep control in Illinois of all statewide offices.

>> And a Republican has not won statewide office in 12 years.

What are chances that changes tonight?

0.

It doesn't change in our past.

Democrats will sweep in Illinois as is expected Nick, I'm gonna I'm gonna come out to you if JB Pritzker current governor, if Democrats are sorry, if he can pull off a win tonight, he will become the only the 3rd governor in Illinois history to serve a 3rd term.

Is that a good indication of how Illinois voters feel about how he's handled the last 8 years?

>> Well, I think it's both a reflection of Pritzker's terms as governor and as county just pointed out, that the dominance of Democrats Illinois elections, particularly on the statewide level, you know, when fits for was first elected in 2018, there you know, fairly contentious Democratic primary emerging field of several candidates, including, you know, names like Chris candidate, someone with certainly a political dynasty and a lot of name recognition behind him.

But since then, really any opposition to him has been You know, certainly the expectations in this room are that he is going to sail to victory.

And as we were speaking about with his chief of staff before Pritzker's establish himself, not only as a dominant force Illinois politics but spending tens of millions of dollars in races around the country.

You know, out on the road as a as a campaign figure is a surrogate trying to help Democrats get elected.

So certainly you know, his time as governor has been, you know, electorally quite successful.

And he's made, you know, a lot of inroads in places that perhaps were more center center, right and are now solidly in the JB column.

>> Right it Nick, you know, unlike when Darren Bailey first went head-to-head with JB Pritzker back in 2022, know, this time he's campaigning for votes from independents some Democrats who might be unsatisfied with their party.

Do you think that strategy will work in his favor this time?

>> He's facing very difficult headwinds.

And I think Governor Pritzker has made a real effort to tie Darren Bailey to Donald Trump, even as Bailey has tried to kind of walk a tight rope of, you know, thanking the president for endorsements.

But, you know, at the same time, distancing himself trying to run perhaps a different campaign, moderate his tone somewhat more than he did in 2022, it's a difficult race for for Darren Bailey to run.

I think, you know, especially given the historic unpopularity of President Donald Trump nationwide and here in Illinois, if he can moderate his tone and that may pick him up a few votes, perhaps it won't be quite the 13 point gap between the 2 of them that we saw in the last election.

But he's got a really hard race to run here and we'll find out soon just how difficult that was.

>> Yeah, Senator Durbin retiring after almost 30 years in office, leaving the door open for current Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton on or Don Tracy or 3rd party.

Candidate Whitfield, Harrington junior.

Now, as we've mentioned, Democrats are expected to sweep the races tonight.

But Stratton's been criticized for some of her progressive policies even going as far as having been called a socialist.

If she wins tonight, what do you think she might fall on the political spectrum in the in the U.S.

Senate and how might that shape some of her priorities?

What how how much should be voting?

>> She'll certainly be on the far left for the left and her predecessor, Durbin.

That's been clear just from her campaign rhetoric.

Her campaign ad of have Trump.

It's hard to imagine that ever coming out of the mouth of Durbin.

But she's very progressive policies.

A $25 minimum wage, abolishing Her campaign manager is telling about her plan to expand Medicare to all Americans.

These are very far-left policies and that's not something that her predecessor always follow through on.

So it seems like it will be a bit of a change even though it that expect expectation is that at the seat will be staying blue tonight.

>> Carney, same question over to you.

How do you think some of the label as a socialist?

How do you think that might sort of define how much she book when she get if she gets into the Senate if she gets elected tonight.

How socialist might she be without identifying?

I mean that that's a term that Republicans love to throw around that Democrats is to call him a socialist, that they're the big, scary socialist.

Somehow.

And it's an accusation that they just lot lot.

But folks mean, left Democrat.

She's a liberal Democrat.

He's not a socialist.

liberal Democrat.

And she does have some progressive policies.

But I think what's important to recognize here in Illinois is that we're seeing huge generational ships with 5 open House seats with an open Senate seat.

They're all gonna stay.

What I said before that I didn't expect any surprises Republicans winning.

We're going to see Democrats win those seats.

But I think it is important to recognize that it's going to be a generational shift.

The biggest one that we've seen in Illinois in a long time.

So ball, though, continue Democratic blue policies.

It will be a different generation another big race that we're all keeping a close eye on tonight is, of course, CPS board president.

All 3 candidates have faced some measure of controversy.

>> expected to play a role in who secures the win tonight.

>> a historic race.

This has never been done for the board president before.

It's hard to say how anyone controversy is going to affect any of the 3 candidates who are the main guys had the perhaps the loudest and most recent allegations against him dating back 10 years.

But Houston's cleared of that by Scott Public schools watchdog Jessica Biggs had her issues putting being placed on the district's.

Do not hire Victor Henderson, of course, had some allegations that he was abusive to his children in divorce proceedings in the past.

So it's hard to say how voters will gauge any of those 3.

But this is a historic first time election.

It'll be interesting to see if those 2 have a Larry Dominguez didn't seem to have some early momentum, but he is also face again, may be the loudest issues lately, even though he was cleared again for a 4th time of these allegations of some inappropriate behavior that dating back 10 years.

So it will be interesting to see if this does affect how voter turnout turns out tonight.

>> you know, union dollars have also played into this as well, helping to contribute to political campaigns this year.

We've got see you endorsing Jessica bigs?

And of course, Chicago teachers union injuries endorsing Mario